Opinion | How ex-president Donald Trump will influence US foreign policy on North Korea and beyond
Even if he decides against running in 2024, Republicans seeking to be his successor will want to be seen as in line with Trump’s views. This unprecedented dynamic may cast a shadow over US foreign policy.
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Before running for office, Trump was critical of US allies and trade agreements. As a candidate in 2016, Trump campaigned against the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement, the Iran nuclear deal, and the Paris climate accords, agreements he would eventually withdraw the United States from either as a signatory or an active participant.President-elect Biden has already indicated that he will rejoin the Paris climate agreement. Biden has also shown a willingness to re-engage Iran and perhaps to rejoin the successor agreement to the TPP. All of these moves will provide Trump with appealing platforms from which to criticise the administration while pondering his future.Alongside these other foreign policy challenges, Trump may influence US foreign policy in a way prior ex-presidents have not.
Trump could use his influence to shape foreign policy initiatives in three distinct ways after he leaves office – by undermining public support for the Biden administration’s foreign policy, calling for specific policy actions by Republicans, or directly inserting himself into foreign policy.
He could place a particular focus on North Korea. In office, Trump has often suggested that he stopped a war and celebrated his engagement with Kim Jong-un as a major diplomatic breakthrough. Vocal commentary from the ex-president could significantly affect the Biden administration’s approach to North Korea. It also shows how he could influence foreign policy more broadly.Undermining public support for talks or an agreement with North Korea would be the easiest way for Trump to influence Biden’s foreign policy.
If the Biden administration concludes another deal with Pyongyang, there is no reason to think Trump would endorse it, simply because he holds up his own meetings with Kim Jong-un as an accomplishment. This would increase pressure on the Republican Party to also oppose an agreement as well.
The criticism need not be North Korea-specific to influence North Korea policy. If Trump pushes Republicans to oppose foreign policy initiatives by the Biden administration more generally, it will weaken the US negotiating position with North Korea and make it reluctant to reach an agreement with the Biden administration.
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If Republicans make clear that they will reverse any agreement if they win the next election, as they did during the Obama administration, the prospect of a second Trump presidency or a Trump-endorsed successor would further undermine the prospect of reaching an agreement with North Korea that is not endorsed by Trump.
This is especially so if North Korea calculates there is a good chance of Trump or a Trump-aligned successor winning in 2024.
Trump could also choose to criticise certain aspects of an agreement rather than the deal as a whole. For example, if an initial agreement called for the dismantlement of the Yongbyon nuclear facility in exchange for a package of sanctions relief, Trump could push Republicans to oppose such an agreement by noting that he rejected a similar deal in Hanoi. Republicans in Congress are already likely to be sceptical of any permanent removal of US sanctions.For Kim Jong-un’s spies, Vienna provides key gateway to Europe
The most direct way for Trump to influence North Korea policy would be to directly insert himself into the talks. Trump has a personal relationship with Kim Jong-un, and there is precedent for ex-presidents to insert themselves into North Korea policy.In 1994, with the prospect of war between the US and North Korea rising, Jimmy Carter decided to accept an invitation to Pyongyang to meet with Kim Il-sung. The proposal that he brought back from that meeting became the basis of negotiations for the Agreed Framework.
While Carter sought the Clinton administration’s approval before travelling to North Korea, it is not difficult to imagine Trump deciding to meet Kim Jong-un on his own.
North Korea might be receptive to such an overture under the belief that it might be able to use Trump to soften a Biden administration’s stance on negotiations and increase domestic support for Pyongyang’s position in the US by rallying Republican support for a position more amenable to its views.
Trump will not be a typical ex-president. The Biden administration should be aware of that and consider not only how he might try to shape US foreign policy himself but also how foreign leaders might use Trump to try and shape US policy.
Troy Stangarone is senior director and fellow at the Korea Economic Institute of America. The views expressed here are the author’s alone
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